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2012年01月27日

【期刊论文】人民币汇率波动对我国农产品进口价格影响的研究

王升, 阙树玉, sheng wang

,-0001,():

-1年11月30日

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2012年01月27日

【期刊论文】dynamic speculative behaviors and mortgage bubbles in the estate market of mainland china

王升, sheng wang

to appear,-0001,():

-1年11月30日

to appear

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2011年12月09日

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2011年12月09日

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2011年10月13日

【其他】speculative behaviors and net mortgage loan to net speculative gain ratio in the real estate market of china

王升, sheng wang

unpublished,-0001,():

-1年11月30日

it is systemic to expound how that the speculative behaviors are driven by the numbers of a series housing policies promulgated by china’s government for the real estate market. the market is resulted in full of speculative behaviors, and has been booming since the beginning of this decade, even though the market has only a very short history, how to measure the speculative behaviors still remains open in the academe and practice. based on the level of housing prices, this paper establishes some innovative dynamic models, proposes a concept of net mortgage loan to net speculative gain ratios to investigate the speculative and other consequent phenomena, and finally concludes some interesting results: the necessary condition of speculative behaviors’ existence is that the growth rate of housing prices must have a positive minimum boundary, and, the net mortgage loan to net speculative gain ratios subsequently exist, which approximately depict the potential risks banks would face. furthermore, agents’ behaviors may impact the housing prices’ trend through changing the expectation or variance of housing returns in sale or resale massively. the last finding indicates that how agents’ behaviors change market’ behaviors, which evidently testifies the efficient market hypothesis would be invalid.

real estate market,, housing price,, speculative behavior,, dynamical model,, net mortgage loan to net speculative gain ratio,, bank

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