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改进的灰色模型预测我国无人驾驶航空发展需求
首发时间：2024-07-26
摘要：运用改进的灰色系统理论对我国无人驾驶航空中的全行业注册无人机架数、全年无人机累计飞行小时数、我国全行业有效无人机操控员执照数进行预测分析，通过建立灰色预测模型，同时运用马尔可夫链理论对灰色预测模型进行改进，并且分别应用两种模型进行预测。结果表明，通过马尔可夫链理论修正的预测模型，预测精度得到了较大的改善，结果更为准确。预测结果说明我国无人驾驶航空发展迅速，增长潜力明显。
关键词： 无人驾驶 无人机架数 飞行小时数 操控员执照数 灰色预测 马尔可夫链
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improved grey model for forecasting the development demand of uav in china
abstract：the improved grey system theory is applied to predict and analyze the number of registered unmanned aerial vehicles (uavs) in the entire industry of china\'s unmanned aerial vehicles, the cumulative flight hours of uavs throughout the year, and the number of valid uav operator licenses in the entire industry. by establishing a grey prediction model and using markov chain theory to improve the grey prediction model, two models are applied for prediction. the results show that the prediction model modified by markov chain theory has greatly improved the prediction accuracy and the results are more accurate. the predicted results indicate that china\'s civil unmanned aerial vehicles are developing rapidly and have improved grey model for predicting the development demand of uav in chinasignificant growth potential.
keywords： uav number of unmanned aerial vehicles flight hours number of operator licenses grey prediction markov chain
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